15

In 1860 -        23,000,000. souls #

1870 - 40,000,000

1880 - 70,000,000

1890 - 120,000,000

. 1900 - 190,000,000

The progression of exports could not be in the same proportion, because, for many years after each settler fixed himself upon the ground, he has not cleared land enough to furnish more than the wants of his own family; and the in-coming emigration afterwards, for a long time, gives a market at his door for what he has to sell. It is the surplus only which will remain for export. While the country is comparatively in an unsettled state, the shipping surplus will be very small. But, to give some idea of the rapid growth of the export trade of the west to New Orleans, as the production at home begins to exceed the home demand, the growth of the steam-boat trade will show. This was very slow at first, for the reasons above named: say in 1820, it was only 10,000 tons; in 1830, 30,000; and in 1840, 50,000   estimating in round numbers. By the compound operation, of emigrants to a continually increasing extent, becoming producers instead of consumers, the following has been the increase of steam-boat tonnage, as exhibited by the treasury department: in 1842, the amount was 126,278 tons; in 1843,^ 134,600 tons ; in 1844, 144,150 tons, and 686 steam-boats; in 1845, 159,713 tons, and 789 steamboats; in 1846, 249,054 tons, and 1,190 steam-boats. In 1847 the tonnage fell back, because the enormous increase in 1846 overwent the demand. But, doubtless, in 1848, the usual rate of progression will continue. (The experience of the writer satisfies him, that the present tonnage does not equal the demand.)

Taking, then, the amount of 1846, as sufficing for 1847, we have an increase, in seven years, from 50,000 to 249,000 tons. Nearly five times, in 1847, the tonnage of 1840, or over 71 per cent, per annum of increase, with a gaining ratio every year. The first year's increase after 1842 being, in round numbers, 8,000 tons; 2nd, 10,000; 3rd, 16,000; 4th, dividing the increase between 1846 and 1847, 30,000, and 1847, 60,000 tons. Carry on this increase in the same ratio, and what would it be by 1865? Certainly not under an average of 100,000 tons per annum. In 1865, estimating the tonnage of steam-boats at 210 tons average, as above, and the total