_    2;;   - 5:;.3    U.
  r   ( 4  <¢   it .·: ‘~ i t   »  —.1·¢;= I
91   9   9- r'   99   9 99 4r’r   9' '   999 9‘9999999  99
2 . Lg; if ‘ N  V»‘‘ fj  ‘  -9; —
t            l   I
        ( (   by Betty Tevis
y I _     9    Ore Americans turned 18 in have high enrollment because of the ap-
      9 t 1979 than in any other peal of the south.)
i   - ‘l it _ ...3)   . j year, ever. After that, if The SREB states project a comfort-
j ,EVl¤,j.,   `z j i  V.,;_ _’ 9 you look at a graph, it’s a able pool of people 15 to 34 years old in
5       ‘         9 downhill slide through the next decade: from 21.4 million
'   NX r 99  ·\ _ 9 1986 (from 4.2 million to 3.5 million), a (1975) to 23.7 million (1980) to 24.35
l (L _9 Z".}   j ~ little climb through 1988 and a straight- million (1985) to 24.29 million (1990).
( ‘ i . .     down plunge after that. The state of Kentucky had 1.13 mil-
r N       What will these ominous figures do to lion people between 15 and 34 in 1975,
    UK’s enrollment? It’s difficult to be sure and a modest gain in 1980 up to 1.2 mil-
9     at this time, but there are some brighter lion; 1.18 million is projected in 1985,
. ”9 ro`ections that could bode well for and 1.148 million in 1990.
, . . . P J
<...   _   · UK’s enrollment future. Besides an increase in the college at-
»     L   The 15-to-34-year—olds show only a tendance rate, UK will hope and work
..        , 9 modest decline through the 1980s. The for an increased enrollment of non-tra-
    W National Center for Education Statis- ditional students. Non-traditional, as
     9  ```9:     tics, and most universities, use 15 to 34 defined by jane Stephenson of Univer-
. ‘ for enrollment projections. sity Extension, is usually part-time, old-
f h \ And 15 to 34, says Dr. Peter Fitzger- er than the traditional 18 to 21-year-old
j    L          6____r  M ald, is "a more realistic age range" of undergraduate and usually involved
i       ‘_ ‘   prospective University students for the with a career or family, or both.
  9   1980s. UK has been steadily increasing its
    . Fitzgerald, head of the UK Office of support services for non-traditional stu-
, ~ , .     Policy and Operations Analysis, is per- dents.
‘ ` ? _,,-   haps UKs most knowledgeable enroll- As worked out by Fitzgerald or his
R 99   .-__,_. ment numbers player. Upon data he counterparts at other universities, any
°~”-..     ·"·»-t   and his staff have collected, analyzed projection of enrollment into the 1980s
9- 99 and plotted, the University is attempt- is based on application of the college at-
rl ·9 I llll  j ‘ " _   ing to devise a realistic enrollment strat- tendance rate. Low projection assumes
( * ' j {  if- 99 egy for the 1980s. the college attendance rate stays at its 9
_ 2 9` ’ .V _    J"       UK’s enrollment in the ’80s could ac- 1976 level; high projection assumes the
    .   ` _ C  .‘  · li`    tually increase if more Kentuckians college attendance rate jumps at the
_) ,  i   "  i     ‘_,__ _,  than in the past decided to go to college. same pace it did in the growth decade of
 ‘ ·   · ,_    if `l`   Kentucky’s going-to-college rate is only 1966 to 1976. Intermediate projection,
  YQ ,`»» »· “  ,     t _•~    T ;  75 percent of the national rate, and 85 usually used by UK, is based on an aver-
    I V_:V ¢   9   _, .¥ _  9*  percent of the rate in the area of the age of these two rates.
    g       Southern Regional Education Board From the start, UK has had a never-
   ,       (SREB). (Kentucky is an SREB state, ending (or so it seemed) wave of fresh
  , 9 9 999999;9T\9 9 along with Alabama, Arkansas, Flor- high school graduates, year after year,
9" ida, Georgia, Louisiana, Maryland, to fill her classrooms. “We have been
-  T;   i ·’ Mississippi, North Carolina, South fairly passive," as Fitgerald puts it, "but
  i   Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia as the size of the wave decreases, we
  '» and West Vir `nia. Enrollment ex erts need an enrollment strate ."
· . , uy 81 P SY
j   \ ' often point out that SREB states tend to
.) ’
l     9
L E QH 1