xt7qft8dh89f https://exploreuk.uky.edu/dips/xt7qft8dh89f/data/mets.xml   Kentucky Agricultural Experiment Station. 1958 journals 066 English Lexington : Agricultural Experiment Station, University of Kentucky Contact the Special Collections Research Center for information regarding rights and use of this collection. Kentucky Agricultural Experiment Station Progress report (Kentucky Agricultural Experiment Station) n.66 text Progress report (Kentucky Agricultural Experiment Station) n.66 1958 2014 true xt7qft8dh89f section xt7qft8dh89f » 1 Progress Report 66 ~ g August I958
  Population Estimates
  for Kentucky Counties
      and Economic Areas
    .Iu1y1, 1957    
U Avercge cnnucl ruie of population ch¤nge_    
20 num   mmm METROPOLITAN       


JULY 1. 1957
By Thomas R, Ford
I The two most significant features of population change in
Kentucky since 1950 have been the relatively slow rate of population
growth for the state as a whole and the relatively ra id growth of
larger urban areas while most rural sections of the state were losing
population. The estimated total population of Kentucky as of July 1,
[ 1957 was 2,98U,000, which represents an increase of less than one
percent since the population census of 1950. During this 7%—year period
. there were more than 561,600 births and 200,900 deaths of state residents,
resulting in a natural increase of a proximately 360,700. This rela-
tively high rate of natural increase failed to raise the state population
appreciably, however, because of the heavy movement of Kentucky resi-
dents to other states since 1950. It is estimated that from 1950 to
mid-1957 Kentucky lost nearly a third of a million residents in its
exchange of migrants with other states, while additional losses were
incurred through the induction of Kentuckians into the armed forces.
The observed net loss through migration is not a new phenomenon
for Kentucky, but rather continues a trend of the past half—century.
Data collected in the 1950 census of population indicated that nearly
a third of the 3,762,315 persons in the United States whose place of
birth was Kentucky were then living outside the state. In contrast,
only 351,000 natives of other states were residing in Kentucky,
During the 19UO-1950 decade alone, Kentucky lost nearly 373,000 resi-
dents in its exchange of migrants with other states. As a consequence,
the population of the state increased by only 3.5 percent during the `
I decade, com ared to a national population increase of lh.5 percent.
The movement of Kentucky's population to urban areas is also
a long—time trend, but has accelerated in recent years, In 1950 there
were 8 counties in the state in which more than half the population
was classified as urban. These 8 counties - Boyd, Campbell, Daviess,
Fayette, Henderson, Jefferson, Kenton and McCracken -— contained a
little more than a third of the total population of the state in 1950.
During the period of 1950-57, all of these 8 counties gained popu-
lation, the combined increase amounting to 15 percent (compared to the
estimated 1-percent increase for the state as a whole}. At the end
of the period (July 1957), it is estimated that they contained almost
no percent of the total state population.
- In 1950 there were 66 Kentucky counties that contained no
urban population (defined as places containing 2,500 or more
residents). Only 15 of the 66 were estimated to have gained population
during the 1950-57 period, and the combined increase of those 15
was less than 5 percent, Furthermore, the population increase of at
least 6 of the 15 can be directly attributed to the growth of the
Louisville and Cincinnati metropolitan areas.

 .. Lp ..
Ear tm B¤:mal.a.t.1s>.¤. us llslimaaad r
The basic procedure used in the preparation of 1957 population
estimates for Kentucky counties and economic areas is one developed by _ _ t_
the Population and Housing Divi sien of the United States lures:. of the
Census, and is known as thetmigration-andenatmzral-increase meth•d.1
Reduced to its fundamentals, this method involves adding births and
subtracting deaths from the most recent census population (in this case,
the 1950 census) to obtain the natural increase in each area, Then
the amount of net migration that has occurred since the census is ,
calculated and either added to or subtracted from the total, depending V
upon whether there has been a net gain or a net loss through migration. `
Since migratory movements of the population are not registered in the  
United States as they are in some European countries, the extent of
migration must be estimated. This is done by first estimating migration
  rates for children of elementary school age; the method is that of
comparing the number of children enrolled in school with the expected 4
number of school age, assuming no migration since the previous census. V
The difference between reported number of school children (with
allowances made for nonattendance of some) and expected number is 4
attributed to migration, and allows the computation of a migration . .
rate for this age group, or cohort. The rate can then be converted, ·
through use of a conversion factor, into a migration ratée of the
total populat1on.2 . _
Limitation; d reliability of    
limitations 0 he mg:-Tation·-and-natural-·-·i.ncrease method of est mating
population change require that a note of caution be introduced with
respect to the interpretation of estimates presented in this report,
At best, population estimates are approximate calculations based upon
certain assumptions and prepared from available data. How closely
the estimated population approximates the actual population depends, 5.
therefore, upon both the soundness of the assumptions and the accuracy r
of the basic date-births, deaths, school membership, and other items-a
used in preparizg the estimate. · · ‘
11'or details of the method, see the Bureau of Census publication
"Illustrat1ve Example of a Method of Estimating the Current Population
of Subdivisions of the United States," prepared by Benjamin Greenberg.,
Qzuzaat Mmmm m.¤.:12.e—·E.cma.ks¤J.¤a E¤l>.=!-mass (series 1>.25. Io. 133)
Washington, D, 0,,Al·larch 16, 195 .
2'1'he conversion factor is a ratio of the migration rate for the l
total population to that of the school age population found in previous
studies. One of the major technical difficulties of this estimation
method is that this ratio is known to vary from time to time and place
to place. For the 1957 Kentucky estimates, different ratios were used
for each state economic area, based on migration data collected in the ‘
1950 census of population.

 . ¤ 5 _
I Because total migration rates are based upon migration rates of
school age children, there is frequently an underestimation of the
3 population in areas receiving a heayy and recent influx of young adults
A who are either single or whose children are not yet of school age.
Similarly, there may be an overestimation of the population of areas
from which many young, childless adults are leaving. Recent changes in
the proportion of school age children actually attending school will
also introduce distortions in.the estimates,
Estimates of the population of areas containing large numbers
of military personnel are particularly subject to error, Although the
number of military personnel is separately obtained, their dependents
; residing in the area must be estimated, and the number of such
_ dependents fluctuates with the movement of the military population,
A Conse uently, popu ation estimates for Kentucky counties around Fort
` Knox zparticularly Hardin county) and Fort Campbell (particularly
Christian county) show considerable variation from year to year,
As a general rule, the larger the territorial unit, the
more reliable the estimate will be, since local deviations from assumed
conditions tend to "average out," Following this rule, greater reliance
can be placed on the population estimate for the entire state than on
? the estimates for state economic areas, which in turn are generally
more reliable than estimates for individual counties,
Trend line estimates,——There are frequently rather marked
variations from year to year in county population estimates, arising
·from inconsistencies and discrepancies in the basic data as well as p
from the actual shifts in population, For 1957, in addition to the
usual estimates prepared according to the procedure already outlined,
a separate set of "trend line estimates" is presented in the appendix
of this report, These estimates were prepared for economic areas and
individual counties by first plotting on semi-logarithmic paper the
1950 census population (corrected for underenumeration) and estimates
for each year from 1953 through 1957, A Wsmoothm curve was then mechan-
ically drawn in such a way as to minimize, within %imits of the
technique, the average variation of the estimates. The resulting
trend line estimate for the total state population as of July l, 1957
was 3,000,500—~about 16,500, or one-half of one percent, greater than
the figure obtained using the migration~and»natural~increase method,
The trend line estimates have gg  been used in the analysis of population
changes presented in the text,
Population Qhgpgg ip State Ecogomi; Ag ag
State economic areas are groupings of counties which have similar
social and economic characteristics, The boundaries of these areas
3It is possible to fit to the data various types of mathematical
curves which will minimize mean variation, but it was felt*hat the gains
in accuracy which would be achieved by this means would not be great
enough to warrant the time and cost involved,

 - 6 -
within each state were dra n by the U, S, Bureau of the Census after A
careful study of such factors as population characteristics, industrial
and commercial activity, cultural features, climate, land use, soil
types, and other factors related to the production of agricultural ,
and nonagricultural goods.u The groupings of counties into a `
relatively few such areas greatly facilitates analysis of changes A
taking place within the state. Kentucky's 120 counties, for·example,
were grouped in 1950 into 3 metropolitan areas and 10 nonmetropolitan
areas, if areas 3a and 3b are separately considered, These areas
classified by average annual rates of population change during the *
period 1950-1957, are shown on the cover of this report,
Two of Kentucky‘s metropolitan areas--the Louisville-Jefferson
county area and the Campbell-Kenton area (part of the Cincinnati A
metropolitan area)--have had substantial population increases since ,
1950. The third area -Ashland»Boyd county (part of the Huntington,
W.Va.—Ashland metropolitan area) has had a slight increase in population ·
since 1950. ,
Half of the state‘s 10 nonmetropolitan areas gained population
during the 1950-57 period, but only 1 of the 5--The Eastern Pennyroyal
and Knobs area (Economic Area jb)-increased at a rate of more than ,
’ 1 percent per year. The other M areas with population increases during
the period were The Purchase (Economic Area 1), the Owensboro-Henderson 7
area (Economic Area 2), the Pennyroyal (Economic Area Q) and the Inner
Blue Grass (Economic Area 7). In none of these latter N areas, however,
did as many as half the counties composing the area share in the general
The 5 nonmetropolitan areas in which opulation declined had
varying rates of loss. The Outer Blue Grass (Economic Area 6) had a
relatively slight decrease, amounting to about 1 percent of the 1950
population. More substantial losses were recorded for the other U
areas--the Western Coal Fields (Economic Area Ba); the South Central ‘n
Knobs (Economic Area 5); the Cumberland Plateau Margin (Economic _
Area 8); and the Cumberland Plateau (Economic Area 9). Losses for these
areas from 1950 to mid»l957 ranged from 7 percent to nearly 17 percent.
Metggpolitee Ageee
The relatively rapid growth of population in and near centers
of industry and commerce has already been noted. Louisville is the
largest such center in Kentucky,and its influence actually extends
beyond the boundaries of Jefferson county, which is the only county
uFor further discussion and materials pertaining to state
economic areas, see U. S. Bureau of the Census, Stete Eeeeeeeg A;eee,
by Donald J. Bogue, Washington, D. C., 1951.

 - 7 - .
officially included within Metropolitan Area A,5 From 1950 to mid-
1957 the population of Jefferson county is estimated to have increased
by 20 percent, about a third of the growth resulting from net migration
gains, The 1957 population estimate of more than 587,000 exceeded the
1950 census enumeration by approximately 98,000,
Kenton and Campbell counties (Metropolitan Area B) are within
the Cincinnati standard metropolitan area and their growth reflects
, in large part the suburban spread of that industrial center, The
combined population of the two counties as of July l, 1957 was estimated
to be approximately 2OU,500, or 12.6 percent greater than in 1950, Kenton
county's population in 1957 was 116,900 compared with Campbell's 87,600,
but Campbell had gained at a somewhat faster rate during the 1950-57
period, its average annual gain being 1.9 percent to Kenton‘s 1.5 percent.
_ Boyd county (Metropolitan Area C) does not appear to have been
equally influenced by the growth of the Huntington, W.Va.—Ashland, Ky,
standard metropolitan area, of which it is a.part, at least so far as
population increase is concerned. The estimated population of the
county in 1957 was approximately 51,100, a gain of only 1.M percent
· since 1950. This relatively small gain must be attributed to natural
increase, since the county actually lost population in its net exchange _
. of migrants with other areas.
Nggmetggpglitan gggag
The 10 nonmetropolitan areas of Kentucky share at least one
population characteristic in common: all had net migration losses
between 1950 and mid.l957. However, individual counties within areas '
did gain population through migration, and it has already been noted
that half of the areas had population increases despite migration losses.
The Purchase {Economic Area l),~-The Purchase area of Kentucky
consists of 8 counties in the extreme southwestern tip of the state.
Since 1950, 3 of these counties have gained population while the remain-
ing 5 have had.population decreases. The gains in Ballard, McCracken, ‘
and Marshall counties, which form the northern rim of the area, were more
than sufficient to offset the losses in other counties, so the area as
a whole increased in population, The 1957 estimate for the Purchase was
nearly 160,000-a gain of 5,6 percent since 1950. However, it appears
from comparison with earlier estimates that the population of the area
may have declined following completion of construction of an Atomic
Energy Commission plant in McCracken county earlier in the decade.
o 5Clark and Floyd counties in Indiana are also part of the
Louisville standard metropolitan area, but their populations are not
included in the figures for Kentucky Metropolitan Area A.

 - 8 -
McCracken county had the largest numerical increase during the
1950-57 period, growing from less than 50,000 to more than 60,000,
Marshall county gained population at a slightly faster rate, however,
in growing from 13,500 to 16,900. Ballard county‘s population increased `
by approximately ll percent and was estimated at 9,500 at midyear 1957.
Callowa , Carlisle, Fulton, Graves, and Hickman counties all
lost population. Their losses during the 7%-year period ranged from
less than 5 percent for Carlisle county to more than 18 percent for
Fulton county.
Qponobogo—Hendorson Aroa §Economio Agoa 2},-~The population of
Economic Area 2, which is composed of 5 western Kentucky counties,
increased by slightly more than 5 percent between 1950 and mid·l957.
The estimated population of the area in 1957 was 137,000. Actually,
only 2 counties-—Dayiess and Henderson»~gained population, but their -
gains were sufficient to raise the total for the area. The population
of Daviess county increased by 15 percent and was approximately 66,500
in 1957. Henderson county increased its population by ll percent and
had an estimated population of 3¤,UO0 at the end of the period. Both
counties gained through migration as well as through natural increase. r
McLean county“s population decreased by 6 percent; Union county
lost 11 percent of its 1950 population; and Webster county”s population A
declined by nearly 19 percent.
Western Coal Fields §Economio Agea 3a},e-The population loss
rate of the Western Coal Fields during the 1950·57 period was exceeded
only by that of the Cumberland Plateau, which is also a coal-mining
area. As of July 1, 1957, the estimated population of the area was
167,600-»a loss of 23,000, or more than 12 percent, since the census of
1950. Livingston county was the only county of the dozen comprising 1
the area that had a population increase, and its gain was less than
half of one percent in 7% years. Relatively small losses, amounting A
to less than 5 percent in each case, were sustained by three other
counties-Edmondson, Grayson, and Hopkins. Breckenridge and Lyon
counties had losses of more than 5 percent but less than 10 percent.
The remaining six counties»-Butler, Caldwell, Crittenden, Hancock,
Muhlenberg, and Ohio--all had losses amounting to more than 10 percent
of their 1950 population. Decreases in these counties ranged from 12
percent in Caldwell county to more than 27 percent in Ohio county.
E#—t¤: P· , 0 =sHa‘·.?.»b¢ .#e!mi¢r?.¢- ..,. rb»,——Tw¤ mador
influences shape population changes in the Eastern Pennyroyal and
Knobs: the presence of Fort Knox in Hardin county, and the proximity
of the Louisville-Jefferson county metropolitan area. From 1950
to mid-1957 the population of the area increased by 8,# percent, and
was estimated to be approximately 133,500 at the end of the period.
Five of the 7 counties composing the area gained in population.
Bullitt county, which adjoins Jefferson county, had the largest
increase both numerically (more than 6,000) and percentagewise
(53 percent). Taylor county‘s population was estimated to have increased
by more than 25 percent, Meade's by nearly lh percent, Hardin's by 7
percent, and Larue's by 3 percent.

 a 9 -
In contrast to the gains registered by most of the counties in
the area, Green county“s population decreased by nearly 1,500, or 13
' percent,during the period, while Hart county's population declined by
more than 3,000, or nearly 20 percent, Both of these counties are in
the southern section of the area, farthest removed from the influence
of the Louisville metropolitan area,
Pennyroyal {Economic Area Q},~—The population of the Pennyroyal
increased from about 171,500 in 1950 to nearly 180,000 in mid-1957--
a gain of almost 5 percent, This increase gives a somewhat misleading
picture of population changes within the area, however, since Christian
county-~site of Fort Campbell——was the only county of 7 that constitute ~
the area that actually gained population, The other 6 counties-~Barren, `
_ Logan, Simpson, Todd, Trigg, and Warren~~had losses ranging from 2 4
percent in Barren county to nearly 15 percent in Trigg. Consequently,
in 1957 more than a third of the population of the area was located in
Christian county, compared to less than a fourth in 1950, Todd and
Trigg counties, which border Christian county on the east and west
respectively, had the highest loss rates during the period. Barren and
Warren counties, which are in the extreme eastern portion of the area
and are the only counties of the area that do not share a border with
Tennessee, had the lowest loss rates,
South Central Knobs, or Eastern Highland Rim §Economic Area 5],
--The pattern of population change in the South Central knobs during
1950—57 was similar to that of the Western Coal Fields, The 1957
population estimate for the area»~l76,000~—was 10 percent lower than the
1950 census population, This loss was shared by all but one of the
dozen counties in the area, Cumberland county had a small increase,
t amounting to half of one percent, ’
Recent population changes in the area may serve as an index of
the influence of the development of Lake Cumberland as a recreation and
resort center, The 1957 estimates do seem to indicate that most counties
in the area have gained population in the past three or four years, after
rather heavy losses from 1950 to 1953, Whether this is a temporary in-
crease or the beginning of a new trend remains to be seen,
‘ Groupings of counties by percentage loss of population from
1950 to mid»l957 are as follows:
less than 5 percent - Wayne
5 to lO percent ~~ Casey, Pulaski, Rockcastle
10 to 15 percent ~e Adair, Clinton, Lincoln, Metcalfe, Monroe
15 to 20 percent ~~ Allen, Russell
Outer Blue Qgass {Economic Area Q).~-The 26 counties of the Outer A
Blue Grass, which are arranged in an almost complete circle around the
Inner Blue Grass, are subject to a diversity of influences which have
produced different patterns of population change within the area, The
population of the area as a whole was estimated, as of July 1, 1957,
to be 325,@UO, or 1 percent less than the 1950 census population,

 - 10 s
However, some counties in the area have experienced phenomenal growth
in recent years while others have had appreciable population declines,
Seven counties gained population during the l950»5? period, while the
remaining 19 had losses of varying degrees of severity,
The highest rates of increase were recorded for counties near
expanding metropolitan centers. Boone county had an increase of 61
percent, or nearly 8,000 during the 19§O~57 period, indicative of the
expansion of the Cincinnati metropolitan area which it adjoins¤
Oldham county, which is adjacent to the Louisville metropolitan area,_
increased its population by 2,000, or 18 percent, Madison county had
a larger numerical increase»-3,000~»but a smaller percentage increase,
9.5 percent and, unlike Boone and Oldham counties, had a net migration
loss. More modest gains, ranging from less than 2 percent to more than
8 percent, were estimated for Boyle, Franklin, Gallatin, and Pendleton
counties. ·
Counties with population losses were distributed throughout _
the Outer Blue Grass circle, but the heaviest losses were in the north»
east, northwest, and southwest section, Groupings of counties by
percentage decrease of population from 1950 to mid~l957 are as follows: ‘
less than 5 percent ~~ Carroll, Grant, Marion, Mason,
, Montgomery, Shelby, Trimble A
5 to 10 percent a. Bath, Nicholas, Spencer
10 to 15 percent -~ Anderson, Bracken, Garrard, Henry,
15 percent and over ·~·- Fleming, Nelson, Owen, Robertson
Iooog Blog Ggass fgconomio Area 2),-»The population of the
Inner Blue Grass increased by 3 percent from 1950 to July 1, 1957 and ` _
was estimated to be more than 212,000 at the end of the period. Only
2 of the 8 counties in the area had population increases, however.
Fayette county, which contains more than half the population of the
area, had an increase of more than 12 percent, while neighboring
Clark county had an 11,3 percent increase,
Bourbon county had the smallest percentage decrease (N,2 percent) ·
of the 6 counties that lost population, and Mercer county had a 7
percent decline. The remaining four counties»~Harrison, Jessamine,
Scott, and Woodford~-all had losses of between 10 and 15 percent, A
plausible explanation is that recent industrial developments in the
center of the Blue Grass, which have produced population increases
in Fayette and Clark counties, have served to draw population from the
surrounding cou ties, If this is the case, further expansion of
industrialization may result in the future growth of some of the nearby
counties, as has been noted in the case of counties on the metropolitan
fringes of Louisville and Cincinnati,
Qgmborlgnd Plgtogu Mgggio §Economic §;ga_8),~—The economy of the
Cumberland Plateau Margin is based primarily on small-scale agriculture
and lumbering, with limited coal mining in some areas. The area as a
whole has lost population heavily since 19QO at a rate of approximately
1 percent per year. The estimated population as of July 1, 1957 was

220,100, or 7 percent lower than the 1950 census population of 236,900.
However, the 1957 estimate is somewhat higher than those of previous years
in the decade and may indicate a slowing down of out»migration,
Despite the general loss, Q counties of the 17 in the area have
increased in population since 1950, Greenup county, which adjoins the
Huntington, W, Va,-Ashland, Ky. metropolitan area, and is also near a
new atomic energy plant in Ohio, had the largest increase (21 percent)
P and was the only county in the area that had a net migration gain,
Clay and Powell counties each had gains of about 3,5 percent, and
Laurel county had a somewhat smaller increase (1,6 percent).
Some of the highest loss rates in the state were sustained by
counties within this area, Magoffin, Morgan, and Rowan counties all
had losses amounting to more than a fourth of their 1950 populations,
l and Menifeexs population declined 20 percent, Estimated losses of
between 10 and 20 percent were recorded for Carter, Elliott, Lee and
Owsley counties, Decreases in Estill, Jackson, Lawrence, Lewis, and
Wolfe counties were less severe, ranging between N and 10 percent,
Cumberland Pgateau {Economic Area 22,»»The mountainous Gumber—
land Plateau region of Eastern Kentucky has a record of heavy population
loss since 1950, The population of the area in 1950 was more than
516,000; the estimated population as of July 1, 1957 was less than
U30,000~—a loss of more than 86,000 in 7§·years, All of the lb counties
composing the area lost population through migration during the period,
but the excess of births over deaths in Leslie and Martin counties
was sufficient to increase their population despite net migration losses,
Leslie county, which is noted for having one of the highest fertility
rates in the nation, had a 19 percent increase, while the population of
Martin county increased by U percent,
The heaviest losses were in the extreme southeastern portion of l
the area, where coal mining is the most important industry. Bell,
Harlan, and Letcher counties all had losses amounting to more than a
fourth of their 1950 populations, McCreary and Perry counties both
lost more than a fifth of their 1950 populations, Four other counties--
Breathitt, Floyd, Pike, and Whitleyamhad losses of 10 to 20 percent,
Johnson, Knox, and Knott counties had losses of 6 to 8 percento
Population changes in this area have been strongly influenced
by the economic conditions of the coal mining industry, The heavy
migration from the area appears to be an adjustment of a population
with a relatively high rate of natural increase to an economic
situation characterized by stable or declining employment opportunities,
` Counties with Baoidlq §han5ing_Populgjiops
Population statistics are useful not only because they provide
needed information about the numbers and characteristics of the
residents, but also because they reflect the social and economic
conditions of a given area, Our social institutions must constantly

 - 12 -
adjust to population changes if serious problems are to be avoided,
and a careful study of population trends may indicate what kinds of (
adjustments should be made. Without adequate preparation, the
social institutions in an area that is rapidly gaining population may
be unable to meet increased demands for service. On the other hand, _
institutions in areas losing population at a rapid rate frequently
face critical problems of financing or staffing programs designed to
meet the needs of a larger population.
Figure l shows a classification of Kentucky counties into two
major groups: those that gained and those that lost population during
the 1950-57 period. Each of the two major groups has been sub-
classified according to whether the gain or loss averaged more than
2 percent per year, between 1 and 2 percent or less than l percent.
Counties gaining or losing population at the higher rates are, of
course, those most likely to be faced with serious problems of social
and economic adjustment. In Table 2, population changes and change _
rates are given for all counties,
Cgghtigg {ith high ghtgg of ihg;ghgg,»»Fr0m 1950 th mid—l957,
32 of Kentucky’s 120 counties were estimated to have had population
increases. Of the 32 that gained population, ll had rates of increase
of less than l percent per year; 10 increased at rates of l to 2 percent;
5 at rates of 2 to 3 percent; and 6 at rates of 3 percent or more per
The six fastest growing counties during the l950~57 Period
(with percentage growth for the period given in parentheses) were
Boone (60.7), Bullitt (52,8), Christian (¤l,9), Taylor (25,7)
Marshall (25.5), and McCracken (22.1), These were followed by Greenup ·
(20.8), Jefferson (20.0), Leslie (18.6), and Oldham (18,2)., Leslie
county has the distinction of being the only county with an average
annual rate of increase greater than 2 percent that had at the same `
time a net migration loss. Population increases in most of the l0 _
ra idly growing counties may be attributed to the expansion of urbanp ”
industrial centers. Christian county's growth is accounted for
largely by the presence of military personnel at Fort Campbell, while;
Leslie county's growth stems primarily from high fertility and a some-
what lower rate of out—migration than is typical of most counties in
the Cumberland Plateau margin,
Jefferson county had by far the largest numerical increase of
population during the period, gaining an average of more than 13,500
persons per year. Other counties with average gains of more than l,0OO
persons per year were Christian (2,500), Fayette (1,700), Kenton (1,600),
McCracken (1,500), Ca pbell (1,500), Daviess (1,200), and Boone (1,100).
(The figures in parentheses are average annual gains rounded to the
nearest 100), All these counties, with the exception of Christian,
either contained large urban centers or were near expanding metropolitan


 .. 13 ...
V Counties with high rates of population 1osg,——Since the census
“ of 1950, almost three-fourths (88) of Kentucky's 120 counties are
estimated to have lost population, A dozen counties decreased at rates
averaging 3 percent or more per year during the 1950-57 period, while
17 others had loss rates of 2 to 3 percent per year,
The distribution of the 12 counties with the highest loss rates
· was as follows:
Western Coal Fields - Crittenden, Hancock, and Ohio
Outer Blue Grass —- Robertson b ,
‘ Cumberland Plateau Margin - Magoffin, Morgan, Rowan
· Cumberland Plateau - Bell, Harlan, Letcher, McCreary, Perry
Since many of those counties had relatively small populations,
high loss rates did not necessarily mean heavy numerical losses. Only
6 counties - all in the Cumberland Plateau coal mining area-had net
losses averaging more than 1,000 persons per year during the period:
Harlan (2,700), Bell (1,700), Letcher (1,500), Pike (1,500), Perry
(1,500), and Floyd (l,UOO). Pike county, despite its heavy numerical
loss, had a rate of loss that averaged less than 2 percent per year
during the 1950-57 period,
With few exceptions, the counties that are rapidly l0sing_popu-
lation are those in which the economy is based primarily on small-
scale agriculture, coal mining, timbering, or combinations of these
industries, While some of the migrants from these areas may be moving
` to industrial centers developing within the state, the relatively slow
growth of Kentucky's total population indicates that most of the migrants
are moving to other states.

 L 11+ -
Table 1.--Estimated Populatlon Changes in Kentucky ‘
Economic Areas, April 1, 1950 to July 1, 1957
Census Estimated . Average
Population, Population, Ijgtllgiglj g;;;;;Ji Annual
”°*‘ ’*¥’1"’*iQ·),_1· J‘{l,Y§Zl» 1950-1957 1950-1957 Echme I
Kentucky 2,971,1+86 2,983,873 ,112,387 ,1 ,1+ ,1 ,1
Metropolitan Area
A. Jefferson 1
County 1+89 ,1+00 587 ,1+21 ,198 ,021 ./20 ,0 ,12,8
-3- ¤¤mp1>9l1 76.799 87,598 ,110,799 ·/111.1 ,11,9 _
Kenton 105,136 116,928 ,111,792 ,111,2 #1,5
C. Boyd ,
county 50,370 51,061 { 691 ,11.1+ ,1 ,2
Economic Area I 1
1. mh, amhese 151,261+ 159,671 ,1 8,1107 ,1 5,6 ,1 ,8
2, Owensboro-
Henderson 129,773 136,751 ,1 6,978 ,1 5.11- ,1 ,7
3a. Western Coal
Fields 191,0011 167,609 --23,395 -12,2 -1.7
3b. Eastern Penny-
1‘<>Y8l & K¤0`¤¤ 123,